END OF SCENARIO – AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL 5/09/1999
The outcome of the war waged at present between the NATO and Serbia is far from obvious! Experts and connoisseurs may claim that they can easily name the winner in this war and that confidential military information is superfluous, everything is clear us it is! Is it possible that they may be right …?!
True, the NATO has enormous military power in the modern world. This military-political organization, or military alliance unites most industrialized countries of the world, as well as less advanced countries of Europe and Asia. The superpower unmatened in the present world, the USA, along with its NATO allies, the most up-to-date technology that has long been oriented at the 21 St century!
However, the history of mankind of mankind, that some people tend to forget, has various precedents to offer. There were precedents in the human history when a strong mighty power was defeated by a small country and withdrew in disgrace! There were others that showed how a country that won a war, later on lost in something more essential than war. And vice versa, the loser in the war eventually won other “battles”. These examples from the world history are probably referred to as “precedents” for the simple reason that the logic of historical development frequently lacks logic at all, or, to be more precise, the laws of “common” formal logic just fail to work!
The outcome of the Balkan war and the perspective winner in the military aspect as we see it today, April 26 rd, 1999, still is unknown. There is, however, something to be foreseen! The historical analogy of what is happening on the Balkans and in the world today with what has once occurred in history and the same (sorry!) “common” formal logic makes it possible combination of events in the near future.
Chapter 1. Serbia, Miloshevitch.
Let us assume that Serbia, with Miloshevitch, comes out victorious of this war. It may be the case of the well-known force majeur. The acting forces are compelled to concede to the new force that the themselves have brought about as a consequence of their actions. The consequence turns out to be stronger than both the causes and the forces produced by these causes and in its turn generates new factors, new causes and new forces capable of bringing drastic changes in the existing state of events.
These exercises in logic of above will in our case roughly mean that in the course of the Balkan war the NATO Command would be compelled to resort to land operations of a certain scale on the territory of Serbia. Further on, it is easy to foresee that the escalation of military operations with the use of land forces will cause losses among the soldiers and officers of the belligerent parties and certainly among the civilian population of Serbia.
Then, the losses among NATO soldiers are sure to cause protests from the population of the NATO country-members, primarily from the mothers, fathers, widows and children of the perished soldiers and the mothers of those who are still in the battle. Then will come an avalanche of protests from public and political organizations in the NATO countries and the world over. And it will all be happening against the background of traditional anti-war sentiments in Europe and in the USA itself that has not yet got over its sad experience in Vietnam.
Coming back to the assumed force majeur situation I will take the liberty of giving it yet another definition: It may be the case of the well-known force majeur that brought about the conditions which the grassroots put up with no more and the upper crust can neglect no more. When talking in terms of a historical situation there can hardly be a better wording that the one given by the proletariat leader, in great revolutionary Lenin! All I have done is to alter slightly his words adjusting them to our present situation, when as we know, revolution are scarce, though mass public protests and demarches come in abundance. Here, the causes of the presumed force majeur acquire social and psychological sense. Het us proceed to them.
So, the NATO country-members as well as the world at large will suddenly witness strongly enhanced protests and demarches against the escalation of the war and for its immediate termination. The change in the psychological setting is also obvious – the earlier prevailing sympathy for the Albanian refugees from Kosovo is quite sharply replaced by the feeling of “national selfishness”, “…we’ve had enough of that! Het them take care of themselves!” At best, the constructive appeal of the NATO coutry-membres’ public for urgent peace negotiations that are so widely talked about, by Russia and Miloshevitch himself in the first place, may prove optimal.
However…, we do not intend to consider those turns and twists or go deep into the particulars in our reasoning. Permit us just to establish the outcome of our force majeur situation: having destroyed half of Serbia and created over 600 thousand refugees (as of today) as a result of their military operations the NATO forced by the public of their own countries ceased the attacks and withdrew. Formally, and in the military sense, too it means that Serbia has stood its ground, won a victory. In the personal aspect, President Miloshevitsh has got the upper hand over the NATO. The world history knows such kind of outcome in the military sense, we also know whatit entails! Miloshevich, the National Hero of Serbia and Yugoslavia, comes a crasher in the next presidential election in the next presidential election in the post-war Yugoslav history. More likely is the following turn of events: … … … …
The chapter 2. Europe. USA, Clinton. … … … … … (“The plan Маrshall of the 21 century?») The ending.
Does the author himself believe his speculations to be realistic and his prognosis practicable? Does he believe in his notorious force majeur? “Yes” and “no”! “Yes”, for history has already seen such things happen again, though with other particulars and peculiarities. And “no”, for the author is reluctant to believe that the world has taken leave of its senses! The notorious force majeur is so far impossible and unrealistic, for the NATO is well aware of what it can expect once the order for the troops intrusion in the Yugoslav territory is given! What are the offensive and the defensive parties after in their stubborn and seemingly concerted action? One thing is clear, though: the talks of the mediators are nothing but a smoke – screen! The more lively these talks become, the more fierce are the air – attacks on Serbia and now Montenegro, too! The more intensively pass ethnic cleanings already on the other hand!
On the other hand, negotiations serve to help investigate the intentions and the NATO strategists plan to conduct them along with the air attacks. As we see, Miloshevitch is obviously as uncompromising as ever. This is, probably, the reason why, firstly, the NATO fails to reach the solution of any of the factical tasks it set itself, even though they are different from the primary ones, adopted before the war started. Secondly, the NATO finds it impossible to end the war with the least losses… And these are not human losses. But they are certainly crucial for the NATO’s future. These are undoubtedly strategic losses. Miloshevitch in sure to realize that, too. He is playing a waiting game and negotiating, this is his reconnaissance in force. Can he be waiting for sign and a suitable plan for ending the war and setting the Kosovo problem? Or is he waiting for his opponents to lose heart? He has no shortage of sites to bomb, he has strong nerves and who knows what he has on his mind? He can well be expecting the force majeur situation to present itself and the announcement of the NATO withdrawal…, to be followed by the national recognition of him as a National Hero of Yugoslavia…?! In that case he might as well start counting down the time till his disgraceful demise from the history of Yugoslavia! There is no doubt about that whatsoever!
But meanwhile the war continues and innocent people lose their lives. Both parties want peas and pray for it. Both parties proceed to the end of the war, which I sincerely home is close at hand. Then why on earth is the war still going on and why is there no peas? Because the parties are yet to bargain, to establish and agree upon the price of the peace to come. And that, alas, is not a possibility, it is an assertion!
Alexander Prokopetz. Israel. 5/09/1999