Whay Likud lost elections 2 march 2020

A long time ago, I wrote an article with the same title. Today I returned to this article one more time, but before the election of March 2, 2020, due to compelled, incidental circumstances … An article of 2000 or 2001 (I don’t remember exactly!) was read by Benjamin Netanyahu, a businessman at that time. His office was located in the Jerusalem Technology Park, where I came twice. In 1999, he assigned his seat of the Prime Minister “Soldier number 1” to Ehud Barak. 21 years later it seems that we are back to that period. The only difference is that now, the master of natural sciences, Captain B.Netanyahu, may concede the prime minister’s chair, that is, power, not to one general and former chief of the general staff, but to three generals and former chiefs of the general staff at once. By the way, Ehud Barak is not only a lieutenant general (Rav Aluf, the highest military rank in Israel), but also a Stanford University graduate; he has a master’s degree in system analysis, as well as the author of 4 books written in English. Which is to say, if we hypothetically imagine that in 2019, Ehud Barak, as the head of a newly created party, for the first time (I really mean for the first time!) would seek a prime minister office, then his chances would be better in comparison to the actual triumvirate of three generals in Kahol Lavan party (Blue and White Political Alliance). First of all, a brilliant military past, secondly, high level of education – besides physical and mathematical – the first degree from the word famous Stanford University and the second degree in political science and system analysis (!!!); the latter is not to sneeze at, as the Russian would say. But … if we are back to the reality, and are not lost into hypothetical thinking anymore, if this were so, a lieutenant general, Ehud Barak was already the Prime Minister of Israel ((1999-2001) replacing Captain B. Netanyahu, his former command subordinate. But history –– a strict, wayward and bilious lady opposed to E. Barak’s return to the supreme power in 2019 and may possibly follow this direction in the future. It seems that the system analysis is not a cure all for politics. It is supported with the story of 2Baracks on 2 continents. In history, E. Barak will be remembered as “a soldier number 1” – which, of course, is ironic alongside with his disastrous term. History likes expressive and succinct definitions, in general. Although the author of these lines believes that Ehud Barak partially deserves his nickname of “a soldier number 1” for his participation in very risky and dangerous operations, being a Sayeret Matkal special forces commanding officer, 37-year-old general, etc. But the history of Israel also knows other military commanders. For example, Arik Sharon, the former prime minister (Zichron le Abracha, in loving memory). Or the civilian “shtafirka” (russian word) Shimon Peres, who made no less for Israel in the military realm than Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon combined. And one more detail that I consider important and perhaps a key one in our current history of 2019- 2020: during the presentation of his new partyi in 2019: “Ehud Barak announced that the major concern of his party was to replace the “Netanyahu regime” with the new leadership of the country…“. These days, the moral qualities of political leaders are being tested for strength. Israeli citizens will well remember that none of the members of the Likud coalition or deputies dared to save the country from the chaos created by Netanyahu. Each of them is responsible for this. ” ii Well said that raw truth, admit, dear reader! In other words, Ehud Barak not only condemned the moral fall of B. Netanyahu, but also suggested that the Israeli prosecutor put a bunch of people on trial along with B. Netanyahu for helping and aiding his criminal regime…! I have already heard somewhere a similar set of terms and expressions … That reminds me! Avigdor Lieberman no later than two days ago and a long time before that, spoke about B. Netanyahu in a very similar manner. It seems that the queue of those who wish to throw B. Netanyahu and his “criminal party Likud” from the Olympus and replace him by themselves is similar to a small crowd of fans at the concert of Eyal Golan. And what is the matter with the above mentioned citizen B. Netanyahu? What has he done so awful to them all, generals and politicians …?!

Piss … in their pockets, or beat the hell out of them as a teenager, walked off with their girlfriend or

stole the wallet with the very last money, liras, it seems …?! Where this hatred is coming from…?! iii

Revenons à nos moutons, that is, to the title of our article. Why does the author believe that the

Likud party will lose the elections that will take place on March 2, 2020, that is, 18 days after writing

this article? There is a number of objective and subjective reasons for this, the complex of

circumstances put together; all in all, it gives a forecast for the failure of the Likud party and the

whole right-wing camp.

The first and the most important one is the fact that the Israeli population is fatigued with elections,

which is the third one in the course of the last and a current year. This is especially striking among

young Israelis, but I would rather call it not fatigue, but infantilism, political apathy of our young

generation. Military service and patriotism are excluded, of cause; the fact that makes jealous all

other countries on the globe. There is no problem with that so far, thanks God. Keep your fingers

crossed!

Before mentioning other reasons in order of importance according to my subjective opinion, I would

like to exclude from consideration the so-called “political fans who are generally politically active

fellow citizens of our country and, finally, my fellow citizens, whom I call “traditional”, in other

words, the Israelis that come to their polling stations, queue and vote exclusively for their sectorial

parties. This situation seems to never change in Israel!

Firstly, “traditionalists” do not want to let their leaders down; secondly, they are afraid that if they do

not show up, the gas and water may be turned off at their place… The latter is a joke from a famous

Soviet comedy. “And if they don’t show up, turn off the gas and water.” If Mister Arye Dery (leader of

the Shas religious party) doesn’t mind me saying so, but this expression was not invented by the

author himself but by the great Russian actress Nonna Mordyukova, who was into raptures with

Israel in her last years.

Opinion polls conducted by Mina Tzemah, Hadashot and others here will definitely give a result

similar to the real one. And in this latter case, it is enough to know the population living in certain

areas of the country (of course, we are talking about those who are legitimate to vote). Before

moving ahead, I want to clarify the fact that in this social group of “fans”, “political activists” and

“traditionalists”, there are several small, changes …but we will talk about it a bit later.

So, we take a snapshot in time of the political and psychological state of Israeli society on the eve of

the third election:

1

For the first time the Israeli society is faced with the fact that the Israeli political elite is not

able to form a ruling coalition as a result of 2 elections hold in the course of a year. The

forces of the right and left coalitions match and their leaders, having received successively a

mandate from the president of the country, failed to form a ruling coalition with the

necessary absolute majority of deputies in the Knesset. This implies an inevitable fatigue of

the whole society, frustration and disappointment. How these factors will influence the

results of March 2, 2020 is not clear yet. But we are positive that it will result in decrease in

turnout at polling stations compared to the previous 2 elections. Some vivid manifestations

of this obviously fit into such thoughts as :

Qu’un fléau…s’abatte sur vos maisons à tous deux. Ils n’arrivent pas à se mettre d’accord et

les gens doivent souffrir sans budget. … Il vaut mieux rester à la maison, se reposer, bien

dormir, c’est le weekend end, quand même … j’irai: avec mes enfants ou mes petits-

enfants ou ma femme ou ma maîtresse – je dirai que j’étais aux élections, il y avait une

queue terrible, puis j’ai rencontré mes camarades de classe, non, tu ne les connais pas … Je

vais dormir après une soirée en boîte, et puis je sors encore ce soir, je vais partir à la pêche,

il faut dire que la brune d’hier était pas mal du tout, en plus, elle a promis de venir ce soir,

ça suffit, je suis déjà allé voter 2 fois, ça suffit, non ?! Hawala a zman.”

Et enfin, nos personnes âgées qui forment un groupe social d’électeurs responsables et

disciplinés: «Moshe, dit donc, dis moi ou tu veux aller avec ton pied endolori, tu tomberas

le long de la route. – Je prendrai un taxi – Trop d’honneur pour cette bande d’escrocs ! T’as

pas oublié, nous avons promis à notre Danechka de lui acheter un ordinateur, tu sais, le

bandit, combien ça coûte?! – Dans ce cas vas-y! Tu peux imaginer ce qui se passera si ces

généraux prennent le pouvoir. Dieu жуксш, notre petit-fils aîné n’est encore qu’en 5e

année. » Je ne peux pas Moishe, je suis en train de préparer les escalopes de Kiev que Dani

adore, la salade olivier pour mon beau fils. Ils viendront nous rendre visite ce soir. Et laisse-

moi tranquille, enfin. Quelqu’un va être élu cette fois, vont t’ils enfin arrêter d’arnaquer le

peuple? Je me souviens d’avoir voté pour notre Arik, vous avez fait votre service militaire

ensemble dans la même brigade de chars. Facile. Une fois, et hop, c’est terminé, même moi

je suis allée voter. Ha ha, je me souviens d’avoir jeté deux bulletins pour moi et pour notre

voisine Tsilia, elle a menacé de voter Tzipi et est tombée malade pile le jour des élections,

et moi, j’ai voté Arik à sa place. – Sarah, de quoi tu parles, eh bien, de quoi tu parles! Tzipi

était dans le même parti qu’Arik Sharon, Kadima! – Kadima-shmadima. Dis moi plutôt si tu

préfères des côtelettes ou du poisson pour le diner?! – Je boirai de la vodka! Je vais noyer

mon chagrin dans un verre! Les gens vont se moquer de moi : ma femme m’interdit de

voter pour Bibi. – Bibi …?! Il est donc un ganav (voleur). – Sarah! Qui dit des bêtises

pareilles?! Qui dit ça Sarah, qui?! – Tsilya, notre voisine et un Monsieur avec des lunettes

que j’ai rencontré dans les files d’attente à Makkabi, lui, il a dit qu’il avait vu …! ” Rien il a

vu, un escroc de base!” ça, il faut encore le prouver, Sarah. – Alors tu dis que tu te souleras

la gueule?! Tu t’en souviens, Moishe que le médecin t’a même interdit de prendre 100

grammes de Keglevich pour le shabbat. Quoi que… va voter, je ne te retiens pas ! Dis-moi

juste ce que je dois écrire ? – Quoi écrire à Sarele, où écrire?! – Sur ta dalle funéraire,

Moishe, sur ta tombe, si tu ne reviens pas de ces élections de merde, les troisièmes de

cette année… C’est comme se chier dessus… Oui, j’ai oublié de te dire que Tsilya a quand-

même voté pour Tsipi. Je l’ai vue à la télé. Je peux lire dans son regard, quelle fripouille … “

Désolé, mon cher lecteur, mais même de ces petits anecdotes on peut conclure que les

Israéliens ont déjà voté deux fois et sont désorientés – cela vaut-il la peine d’y aller une

troisième fois si cela ne fonctionne pas. Et le nombre est évidemment assez important. Je

pense que parmi ces personnes-là, beaucoup ont voté pour le Likoud.

The disastrous message about Netanyahu’s refusal of parliamentary immunity (a gentleman’s

act!) intensified disorientation and doubts even more. “Without Netanyahu Ain Mashmaut

Lalekhet Le Bhirot.” Formally, all Israeli social strata vote for parties, in fact for the leaders of

these parties. Solely, a naive deputy Gideon Saar, believed that if he was elected to the

primaries, all Likud problems would disappear at once. Yes, they will, but only with the

popular vote. Truth be told, it is possible that in this case the party of killers from other

parties would be slightly behind the party (a rare unanimity of the Israeli elite!). Of course,

the political apathy of the population as a result of the languid expectation of truth, result,

seder, has a very negative impact on the voter turnout for the elections.

New is not a synonym for good. In conversations with the young Israelis, I ask them who they

will vote for and why. The answer is for Kahol Lavan. Why?! “I want something new!” The

youth’s craving for everything new is understandable, be it the landscape outside the

window, a country other than Israel, the new girl (“no, not blonde, I’m fed up with them, a

brown-haired one”). I hear this phrase often and not only from the young people iv.

Psychologically, the picture looks like this. So far, only the shining uniforms and words and

nothing but words, not backed by any assets and practice of public affairs, stand behind the

fledgling Kahol Lavan party.

New, what a sweet charm of a word, of a concept! New does not mean old. New is always

freshly painted, gilded, and it smells great, just because it is new, fresh. And behind the old

places it smells good (there are good things for people), and in places it smells bad (not

everyone was satisfied with the new reform or innovation, one of the ministers screwed up).

Behind the back of the old are affairs, people’s actions, subjectivity, the human factor. The

Old was and is still blamed for all the perfidiousness. The new party of Kadima would

inevitably lose if it were not for the mighty figure of the tank king, Aric Sharon. Arik Sharon is

gone; the party is gone as well. The role of personality in history cannot be cancelled.

So, we conclude: a hunting call, the illusion of renewal is a very strong factor, especially at a

crossroads in conditions of poor visibility and it is still the strongest motivation for now. The

atmosphere of scandal, the ability to make much of very little, and finally, the title of a

“moral monster”, as was put by the Ehud-Avigdor duo, which accompany the name of the

Likud party leader for the last 4-5 years, if I remember correctly, reinforce this motivationv.

3 There is no beast worst than the secretary.

 One of the sure signs of an impending defeat is internal cracks in the frame of a human

organization. Such an organization is doomed to defeat in the competition for a place under

the sunvi. It is infighting, disorder, stir, and finally a breakup. Is there any stir in the Likud

party?! There is, as in any other party, when it begins to have some difficulties. Yes there is a

breakup in the party. Relatively small, but it is there. They managed to plaster up the crack,

but the residual matter remained. The demarche of one (the oldest member of the party)

would not have taken place if he had not been supported by the other deputies of the Likud

party. And this hidden bullet in his pocket, hidden until better times for a quiet or noisy

presentation, cannot but disturb. From my personal observations, I concluded that some

Likud deputies, and even ministers, are looking for lifeboats and other watercrafts urgently

to sail away from the sinking Titanic Likud. Sadly, but nothing is new under the sun.

And what about their secretaries, who would surely win the first prizes at the watchdogs’

competition? Some visitors heal torn wounds for a long time because there is no worse

person in the world than the Israeli secretary. Here come the owner in a different guise, well,

let’s say on the day of the Purim holiday; he would have been bitten to death… Ask where is

the nose at such a dog? There is no nose! There is no nose at such a little dog; it is replaced

by the owner’s directive: “I am busy; I am very, very busy.” They have learned the truth that

is to say that fewer visitors lead to fewer problems. A really important person will be

introduced thanks to a preliminary call of even higher authorities. Such secretaries have a

well-developed 1st signaling system, the second is completely absent, as useless. Eyes serve

to observe what a person is wearing, what his shoes are. There is also ear: sometimes a

visitor is dressed inconspicuously, knee high to a duck mosquito, but speaks in bass, and

most importantly, has the same turn of speech as her boss. Come on adoni, we are happy to

see you and in no time she sends a report up to the line. “Mugzar, medaber kmo ata, ulai

bicoret …”. It happens that an overweight visitor is admitted to meet the boss, but she is not

at ease in this case…

About 20 years ago as I had been working at the Bezek factory, one of our workers happened

to have a mobile phone and a possibility to get connected with the international lines, a rare

thing at that time. I borrowed a phone and called Paris, Le Monde newspaper. After 2 or 3

beeps, the pleasant female voice responded: “Bonjour, Monsieur”. I mentioned my name,

even without giving the title of the article – I couldn’t translate it in such a short time as I was

completely amazed – as they answered my call, I succeeded to get in touch with the

newspaper itself, an institution located just below the office of our creator … !!! “One

minute, Monsieur. Votre article est avec le rédacteur en chef adjoint. One minute

Monsieur … Il est sur une autre ligne”. I could not come to myself for half an hour and could

not work. “Your article has been sent to the Le Monde editor-in-chief; obviously we will get it

printed.” My article was in English, about Yugoslavia. Then there was a war. So they also

translated it into French … since they are going to print it…?! Be able to talk to Paris, with the

secretary and the deputy chief editor for five minutes …?! This is absolutely impossible,

cannot be…!

As time passed, progress was rapidly advancing on the inhabitants of the planet Earth. Every

third person should have a mobile phone now, at least in Israel. By the way, Israel gave an

invention comparable to Google to the world, an invention that even surpasses Google in

terms of impressing customers. “A. office of idiots-press 1. B. office of cretins-press 2. V. office of idiots and cretins together (in one place…?!)- press 3. G. superkantselyariya idiots Oi-Va-Voi -press 4»

These days, many of the Israelis who take the responsibility for their own future and the

future of their children are trying to call and offer help to their parties. If, by any chance, they

will manage to get through and hear a live voice, they will be invited to come to the address

N and be their “legs”.

– Et bien! J’ai 72 ans, mais s’il faut être “vos jambes “, je le ferai! Je suis un vieux soldat, j’ai

combattu avec Arik Sharon lui-même …! Et que dois-je faire avec mes jambes?! “Vous

devez aller dans un endroit ou nous vous envoyons.” Là, vous serez accueilli par notre parti

de district achrai, il vous dira quoi faire. – J’ai besoin de prendre quelque chose à manger

avec moi, Machshev?! Makhshev n’est pas nécessaire, Akhrai l’a, vous pouvez y aller, vous

resterez là pendant 4 ou 5 heures. Mais, en général, nous avons des sandwiches et du thé,

du café et du cola là bas, dans le bus car nous prenons soin de nos gens – pas comme ces

bleus et blancs, il y a quelqu’un qui monte sur un scooteur et distribue des bouteilles d’eau

et des burekas en pierre .. Vous les verrez, ils ne sont pas loin des nôtres sur la place –

Désolé, j’ai une bonne idée ici là; mes amis et moi l’avons essayée il y a 50 ans et nous

avons gagné via la partie Mapay, une idée brillante – Non, vos idées, vous pouvez les

partager avec l’Institut Weizmann, nous, on n’a pas besoin. Mais vous pouvez nous

envoyer vos amis, nous trouverons un travail à la hauteur de leurs forces. – Je ne peux pas!

– Pourquoi?! Vous ne voulez pas?! – Comment vous dire. J’aimerai bien, mais je ne peux pas

… Ils sont tous au cimetière – avant-hier j’ai enterré mon dernier ami. Ils étaient tous plus

âgés que moi, j’étais un gamin à l’époque. J’étais le dernier de notre peloton … – Je suis

désolé, papi, et je vous compatie, nous vous laisserons au quartier général et vous collerez

des affiches sur les panneaux d’affichage. – Mais quand même, que faut-il faire avec mes

pieds ? Je viendrai avec mon petit-fils, il restera au quartier général pour coller des

affiches. Et je suis toujours en bonne santé, un ancien officier du renseignement, j’irai où

vous le dites. Que devez-vous faire avec vos pieds?! – Mantras! Vous ferez des mantras.

Nous les faisons depuis 20 ans – et comme vous pouvez le voir, nous avons gagné à tout le

monde! “

Mantras

Mantras can be small, medium and big. Small ones are leaflets, slogans and other small stuff.

Advertising agencies and printing houses work on large mantras and medium ones (they are

contracted by election campaigns).

Mantras can be affirming – like Israel Hazak (on a big poster). Or “Only we will give the Israeli

people…!” Denying or protesting like “We won’t allow siphoning off our country.”

Sometimes they go into detail that is for whom siphoning off the country is prohibited, citing

the party or individuals. Sometimes they do not. They are politically correct in general.

And finally, the third type of mantra which is a wonder for all the senses: hearing, sight and

smell. Basically, these are videos on the Internet, on social networks. They have very few

chances to pass on TV. Why?! They smell disgusting, worse than a skunk’s liquid. For, they

massively and selectively play dirty tricks on the party and individuals. Unfortunately, Mister

A. Liberman is the leader in this play. Not a single day passes by without him throwing a

dootie under the feet of his former comrade-in-arms B. Netanyahu. Apparently, a man was

seriously offended… And he rushes from one extreme aspect to the other. From an alliance

with Avoda and Merets to an alliance with right-wing religious parties. But the serious parties

don’t hurry up to invite the former intermediary, Huhama ala Tzipi -2 anywhere. There is

nothing else to do as to prophesy in black and meditate “Netanyahu is done!” But this is, my

dear readers, Madame Politics in person … Well, enough of that.

Conclusion:

Toutes les raisons et circonstances indiquées ci-dessus, d’une manière ou d’une autre,

parfois plus, parfois moins, mais elles i le résultat des élections!vii Tout d’abord, l’apparition

des électeurs dans les bureaux de vote. Deuxièmement, le choix d’une «majorité

amorphe» si certains d’entre eux venaient encore aux urnes le 2 mars 2020

In conclusion, I will tell you a joke. We are Jews. We can’t live without humor!

Anecdote.

“Moishe are you back on TV and politics again?! Look at yourself in the mirror. You look like an idiot.  “Sarah, there’s a man on TV who said, ‘We’re three generals here’ – what does that mean?”!”- If three generals are in the same place and at the same time…?! So tomorrow will be war!”

  God forbid that! We, the people of Israel, have had enough of fighting for two centuries

ahead… It is just a joke. I invoke all Israelis, especially the young ones, to come and vote. You

determine the future of Israel for a period of 4 years. And your future and future of the

people of Israel depend on your choice. Vote with your mind and heart! Amen.

P.S. The author apologizes to all those whom he involuntarily touched in his analytical fervor.

It is nothing personal. It is just a desire to put objectively a light on the picture. And you, my

dear reader, will judge whether the author’s judgments and estimations are fair or not. And

yet – sometimes I would shame our Israel. Where are we going?! How are we going?! What

are we looking for?!

Since the title of the article obliges the author to make any forecast. I’ll take a chance,

although I’m neither a Nostradamus nor Vanga. Likud loses to his main rival from 4 to 8 seats

 on February 16. On March 2, the most likely the difference will be equal to 3-5 seats. By

the way, the party “Our Home Israel » won’t have 8 mandates, as last time, but 4-5.

Consequently, expectations will be different. The assertion that Liberman decides elections is

slightly exaggerated. Shalom.

Al Prok. 02/17/2020. Ramat Gan

27 thoughts on “Whay Likud lost elections 2 march 2020”

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